"As I said, I know I cannot save everyone, but I also know what ... what Superman's idea means for so many people ... I am the man who comes from heaven and helps people. If I'm there, everything will be fine. And everyone ... everyone is convinced of it. Everyone knows about Superman. [...] Well anyway. That ... the look of that man ... there he is, the American boy. Raised with the flag, the story, the apple pie of the mother ... first trained as an aviator and then as an astronaut, the highest degree of human commitment, and is about to accomplish what his country has promised - and leads with himself everything he believes in. The things of which he is sure: the shots heard in the world, Forte Alamo, the last battle of Custer, some marines raising the flag at Iwo Jima ... America, the largest country in the land of God ... and Superman ... if Superman is there to save him, he does not have to fear. I am afraid of this thing that everyone believes, the truth unassailable. "No, it cannot be everywhere, but if it intervenes for me, I will be safe."

From the film “Superman” by Steven Spielberg. 

While Donald Trump hears the American boy, raised with the flag and the apple pie of the mother ready to defend the homeland from a new war, the commercial one, even Europe discovers his Superman: Mario Draghi, who amazes everyone with a politics that are still expansive of monetary currency where the Fed and the United States seek refuge. On Friday, the US has confirmed that there will be 50 billion tariffs on Chinese imports and the threat of an additional 100 billion dollars, which will start in case of reprisals by the Chinese side. Beijing, in fact, has promised 25% tariffs on agricultural products and cars in the USA. China, in turn, has announced that further tariffs will affect chemical, medical and energy sectors. From words to deeds, Trump is not afraid of confrontation; indeed he is convinced that, with a trade deficit of this proportion, the US has nothing to lose. Trump’s weakness is his strength— maybe that's why he feels Superman. The Chinese front is only the first step. Then comes that of the European friends…or enemies.

The clash is already underway after a failed G7. It will not be easy. Europe is looking for itself and will not want to lower its head. In these moments of fragility, it is precisely the relationship with the other that defines you and Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron know it well. This is an important historical moment where strength must be shown. Yet it is precisely at home that Merkel suffers. The Chancellor is under pressure from the Minister of the Interior Seehofer (who leads the CSU party that supports the coalition government) on the migrant front. On Friday, a rumor had arrived (promptly denied) relating to the end of the ruling coalition. According to Bild, the Seehofer party will ask for two weeks to reach an agreement with Europe to facilitate returns. In this tense and volatile climate, the ECB makes itself heard because it does not participate in the chorus of words but speaks independently, in no uncertain terms, without complying with the Federal Reserve and the common feeling. Monetary policy is still expansive because, despite economic growth, many doubts remain about its long-term sustainability.

In translation: after the end of September, "the monthly pace of net purchases of securities will be reduced to 15 billion euros until the end of December 2018" and will therefore end. A non-definitive decision but functional to the inflation trend. According to the new estimates, inflation will grow at a rate of 1.7% per year in 2018, 2019 and 2020. So, rates will remain at this level for a long time. For a sustained recovery of inflation, we still need "a significant monetary stimulus" - said Draghi - underlining that "the implementation of structural reforms in the countries of the euro area must be substantially strengthened. Immediate reactions followed from of the euro losing ground on the dollar and for those who read between the lines, this is the best response to tariffs: a weak euro. China had also threatened not a reprisal of duties, but a guided depreciation of the currency. Only history will be able to tell if the Federal Reserve or the ECB is wrong, or if they are in different market situations. The other variable at stake is one that cannot be given weight due to its unpredictability— the price of crude oil and therefore its implications for inflation. The differential between WTI and Brent remains very high- between 10 and 11 dollars per barrel- , thanks to the difficulty in refining and exporting the shale gas produced in the USA.

A few days before the OPEC meeting, it seems that there is a break within the Cartel, with Iraq, Iran and Venezuela ready to veto the proposal to increase production advanced by Arabia and Russia. Superman has laser eyes, he is stronger than steel and can fly— we prefer to keep our feet on the ground and read the signs coming on the front duty as a source of uncertainty and instability on global growth. In this phase, we continue to prefer stock picking, carefully choose every single stock, to extract the most resilient to duties and to the economic slowdown.