“An inspiration crisis? And if it were not at all passing, handsome gentleman? If it were the final collapse of a liar without more talent or talent? Gulp! But I understood it, you know, what you want to tell! You want to tell the confusion that a man has inside himself. But you must be clear! You must make me understand! If not, what purpose is there? (Peace).

“I shot it without ever seeing anything I did, because there was a strike going on. I had to force myself, shout, to force everyone to continue anyway. And it was the ideal situation. Because when you go to see the material shot day by day, you see another movie, you see the movie you are doing, which will never be the same as what you wanted to do “.

Quotes from the film: “8 1⁄2” by Federico Fellini.

Fellini tells how he turned “8 1⁄2”, the screenplay follows the current situation in Italy: directors without more inspiration, simply intended to shoot a film, without an idea of the plot, if not the confusion. The actors are there, and also good. Cottarelli has a long career at the International Monetary Fund but he risks not having the support of the parties. However, reality does not need direction and the markets hate uncertainty and confusion. Add that the ECB could, in September, remove the foot from the accelerator, ending the Quantitative easing program. And it’s done. The ten-year Bund / Btp spread flies by 200 basis points. The FtseMib loses 11% in 14 sessions. Some Italian banks return to decline by 6% in one morning. The suburbs in Europe seem to all have a common soul. Spain is preparing to face, on June 1, the vote on the motion of no confidence against the conservative premier Mariano Rajoy, who has been overwhelmed by heavy convictions for corruption.

Italian debt requires higher guarantees than those required of other countries and it does not seem that new arrivals in Rome are aware of it. And, in the absence of direction, they are writing the screenplay. In the first half the Italian spread widens; strong warnings are sent. Without alternatives. Then it comes; the numbers, not the promises of politicians, black and white say something immutable, with the spread rising, for the Italian public accounts there is no room for any expansive maneuver. Investors are not thinking. The diktat is out of Italy, with a GDP that weighs less than 2.5% of the world, the big funds do not think twice. In the second half we can see the ending. The problem is the cascade effects. Will we come back to talking about a two-speed euro? What does this mean for our investments? Means distrust, means volatility and the solution is always one, the one that we are adopting for a long time: diversify as much as possible.

Italy does not provide necessary guarantees. It grows less than the rest of Europe and the world. It went well so far, now it is better to open the umbrella under the storm and take shelter. Waiting for the weather to calm down, but without being exposed, is not worth it, especially for those who already have everything in Italy, home, work, salary. In this scenario, the strong euro looks like a chimera. A weak single currency like everyone, Germany in the lead, because the largest exporter in the area. This is the photograph of today. In 2050, Italy, now in eighth place in the world ranking based on GDP, is seen at the 20th. Thirty years, GDP with the same purchasing power see (remember that the US already have already lost the record), United States in third place, fourth in Indonesia, followed by Brazil, Russia and Mexico. The estimates at thirty find the time they find, but the underlying trend is marked, and the demography has its weight. Now, beyond the usual political rhetoric, the most concrete question is, our portfolio which horizons and what weights have? This is the main reason why we focus a lot on diversification and so far, has always paid off. Weakness is often hiding a force.

In this context, the bond market is becoming increasingly interesting. Equity is volatile, and the bond offers valid investment alternatives, especially outside the euro area. US Decennial at 2.9%. Structured bonds on the short and long- term interest rate differential are also interesting. Now the curve is flat, but the long-term average has always been for a decidedly higher differentials Even the US seems to have lost their director. It is no longer clear where Trump’s foreign policy goes, the success / non-success of Korea, the contrast with Iran, the tariffs. The markets do not like telenovelas, they prefer to focus on numbers. So, the price of oil does not fear the high tones between the US and Iran but looks at the fundamentals. The US pump 10.7 million barrels a day. First world producer. Russia and Saudi Arabia want to increase production. The expensive crude goes out, the Brent returns to $ 75 a barrel and the differential with the WTI is almost at the highest ever. Take advantage of the energy tip.

Italy is one of the most beautiful nations in the world, but we do not confuse beauty with economic fundamentals. The film closes with all the characters that are held by hand in a single circle and it is useless to dramatize on the big stage of life. Just diversify.